Peter Sagan has won two stages but his success has been achieved at the top of hills. He was asked at the finish of stage four if he believes he's able to win a pure bunch sprint and he waivered, before answering that, “every sprint is different”. He was stranded without his key lead-out man in Rouen as Daniel Oss crashed with 2.6km to go. Perhaps the Italian's presence would have altered the result.
The consensus is that stage five to St-Quentin will be a bunch sprint but nothing is certain. Should it go to the formula, however, several aspects already need to be considered when thinking about the possible winners: did the crash involving Mark Cavendish cause injuries that will slow him down? After missing out on acquiring any points in Rouen, will ‘Cav' officially end his campaign to defend the green jersey he won in 2011?
Other things that may influence the outcomes include the commitment of the chasing parties. Lotto-Belisol was committed today and Orica-GreenEdge has demonstrated that it's willing to work... but Sky still has it's main focus: the yellow jersey for Wiggins. This leaves RadioShack-Nissan in a position to defend Cancellara's yellow jersey... and hope for some cooperation from some sprint teams.